Assa Abloy Hunts illbruck on Short, Light and Tricky Last Leg to Kiel

By Rich Roberts
For YachtRacing.com

GOTHENBURG---After 8 ½ months and 32,450 nautical miles, the weather gods apparently have little left to give. The 48-hour forecast for the final 250 miles of the Volvo Ocean Race to Kiel starting Saturday at 2 p.m. local time is for "very light" winds of no more than 10 knots, probably less.

"That would suit us just fine," said Neal McDonald, skipper of Sweden's Assa Abloy, the only boat with a mathematical chance of overtaking Germany's illbruck in the final tally.

Three of McDonald's crew---Mark Rudiger, Chris Larson and Mike Howard---make it the most American boat in the race. John Kostecki of San Francisco is illbruck's skipper but the only American on board.

The outlook sets up an interesting scenario. Assa Abloy, with second place assured, has nothing to lose and the anticipated conditions play to its strengths and illbruck's vulnerability in light wind and on short legs.

Also, Knut Frostad, skipper of Norway's djuice, spoke from local knowledge when he said, "There is a lot of current through this leg. It's not straight-line sailing. There will be chances to break away."

But for illbruck, with 54 points to Abloy's 49 (8 points for first, 7 for second, etc.), the five-point edge is huge.

To win, Assa Abloy needs to: ---Finish first and put four boats between itself and illbruck (57-57), then it would win the tiebreaker on a countback to more third places on the nine legs;

---Or, finish second with illbruck last (56-55), because illbruck would otherwise win a tiebreaker on more first places, 4 to 3.

In other words, Abloy's best hope is for illbruck to run aground on the Baltic shore, and Kostecki isn't about to let that happen.

"Believe me, I'm extremely happy to have a five-point lead going into this last leg," he said.

He also is happy that the race is about to end---and not deeply disappointed that syndicate boss Michael Illbruck scuttled his America's Cup campaign, which Kostecki also was to lead. Kostecki has moved without relief from the 1997-98 race through the AmericaOne America's Cup campaign to this race.

"It's getting old," he said, wearily. "I'm ready for it to be over. I've been living out of a duffel bag, and nine months going around the world is a long time. It's rewarding for all the time and effort we put into it, but
changing hotel rooms every month . . . I'm looking forward to spending some time at home in the Bay area."

Four-race veteran Gurra Krantz, skipper of Sweden's struggling SEB, said, "There's always a love-hate relationship with this race. It takes a lot out of you."

Krantz will have one fresh face aboard: multinational match-racing star Gavin Brady, an Annapolis resident from New Zealand who will sail the next America's Cup for Italy's Prada.

Peter Isler of San Diego will rejoin Australia's News Corp, with whom he sailed Leg 3 from Sydney to Auckland, offering his inshore sailing savvy.

Although illbruck leads, some of the skippers think Assa Abloy is the fastest boat.

Frostad, with the only Laurie Davidson design, currently next-to-last, has said, "I would change with Assa tomorrow, it's so fast."

In a poll at a press conference Thursday, Kostecki and Tyco's Kevin Shoebridge also picked Abloy, on the condition that they couldn't sail their own boats. Illbruck got two votes, including McDonald's.

The issue had been raised earlier that Abloy had sailed at a faster average speed than illbruck but trailed because it covered more miles---an indirect slam at Rudiger, the San Francisco navigator.

"My comment," Rudiger said, "is that illbruck is the fastest boat. Everyone has a little edge in their conditions, whether it is because of boat or sails. The variables and realities of ocean racing, factoring in weather and human error, is way too complex to sum up with statistics. Basically, the only thing anyone is going to remember is who won a leg."

McDonald has no complaints about the work of Rudiger, who charted Paul Cayard's victorious course for EF Language in 1997-98.

"My hat goes off to Rudi," McDonald said. "It's a navigator's race and three or four of his calls are what we look back on now and say, well, that's what won."

Since dismal fifth- and sixth-place finishes on Legs 1 and 2, Assa Abloy

has outscored illbruck, 42-38.

Illbruck's lead was built on the longest legs (see chart). The German boat won four of the five longest legs and was second on the other. Abloy won the fourth, sixth and seventh longest legs.

Rudiger and others attribute illbruck's advantage over distance to its power-reaching ability.

"The keel, the sail plan, everything," Rudiger said. "And because they had more developmental time, they know their numbers better. When they get off on their own, like you do on these long ocean legs, they know how to make the boat go optimum speed all the time.

"We were all kind of learning and getting to that point, but they were there in the beginning. As far as upwind and downwind, Tyco and we were beating up on 'em on that whole beat past Denmark upwind. They didn't have a chance."

Abloy was first into Gothenburg, the home of its sponsor as well as the race's owners, while illbruck finished five minutes back in fourth.

"Our sponsors are over the moon," McDonald said. "Coming in here was just terrific. I've never seen such a welcome."

The sen doff should be even more spectacular, but this time it will be the German going home.