LET'S
DO THE NUMBERS
27th February 2003
As
much as the Around Alone race is an event of sailing
and seamanship, it is also a game of numbers and
you can be sure that the skippers spend much of
each day studying and crunching numbers. They
keep a close eye on their performance numbers
like boat speed, wind speed, wind direction and
compass heading, but these days the Class 1 skippers
are looking long and hard at some additional numbers.
They are looking at the points accumulated since
the race started and figuring out how the rest
of this leg, and by extension, how the rest of
the race will play out. By any measure it’s
getting exciting. Here is how the totals stack
up.
Let’s
start by looking at the race for the top spot.
Going into Leg 4 Bernard Stamm was in the lead,
but despite three terrific wins he is only 3 points
ahead of Thierry Dubois on Solidaires. (see end
for how points are allotted). Bernard may have
crossed the line in first place three times, but
Thierry has three second place finishes and that’s
good enough for 27 points. Say Dubois wins this
leg (leg 4), he will have a total of 37 points.
(27 plus 10 for a win). Stamm needs to finish
in the top three to remain ahead going into the
last leg. Should he finish 4th the two skippers
will be even (both will have 37 points). Right
now Bobst Group Armor lux is in second place on
the water, but don’t forget Bernard will
have a 48-hour penalty added to his elapsed time
for the leg because he received outside assistance
in the Falklands. With Simone Bianchetti on Tiscali
just over 200 miles behind it’s likely,
providing all goes well for the Italian skipper,
that Bianchetti will finish ahead of Stamm on
corrected time. That pushes Bobst Group Armor
lux back into third, but what about Emma Richards
on Pindar? At the last poll Emma was 435 miles
behind Bernard. At the speeds these yachts travel
that’s less than two days sailing (48 hours)
which means that she will also beat Bernard, pushing
him into fourth. Beyond that there is no risk;
Hexagon has already stopped and will also have
to endure a 48-hour penalty, and that same will
apply to Bruce Schwab when he stops in the Falkland
Islands.
So
assume the worst case for Stamm is a fourth place
for the leg. He and Dubois will go into Leg 5
with an even number of points making it a horse
race to Newport. The first boat in will be the
overall winner. Things will be just as interesting
if Bernard comes third on this leg. He will go
into the last leg with a single point lead over
Thierry. If he wins the last leg he will still
win the race, but what happens if Dubois wins
the last leg? If Stamm finishes third or below
on Leg 5, Dubois takes overall victory. If Stamm
finishes second they end up with even points (both
will have 47 points) and the race is then decided
on elapsed time for the whole race, including
penalties.
Going
into Leg 4 Bobst Group Armor lux was 2 days and
8 hours ahead of Solidaires on elapsed time. Who
knows how this leg is going to end up, but the
48-hour penalty that will be added to Bernard’s
time almost wipes out the (elapsed time) lead
he had going into this leg. Assuming Dubois beats
him across the line in Salvador, the difference
will also be added to his time. If Thierry beats
Bernard by more than 8 hours into Salvador, and
he will go into Leg 5 with an elapsed time lead.
(Remember, if Bernard finishes ahead of Emma on
this leg, but Thierry beats him into Newport,
this elapsed time is how the race will be decided).
My best guess is that Bernard will end up fourth
for this leg with the penalty, and the race will
be decided on who beats who into Newport. It’s
going to be fascinating.
So
that accounts for the top two spots, but there
is still a battle raging for the final podium
place and it’s between Emma Richards on
Pindar and Simone Bianchetti on Tiscali. Should
Bianchetti finish second for this leg (after penalties
are assessed) he will go into the final leg with
27 points. If Emma Richards finishes third she
will have 28 points. Should she finish fourth
(i.e. Stamm nips in despite his penalty) they
will both have 27 points making it a horse race
to the finish. The first of those two boats to
get to Newport will take the last podium place.
If Emma finishes third on this leg, Simone will
have to beat her into Newport and put a boat between
Tiscali and Pindar. No boat between them will
even the score leaving Pindar to win on elapsed
time (because of the disastrous second leg by
Tiscali when the boat was dismasted).
So
those are the numbers – I know it’s
confusing but follow along. It’s also fascinating.
This is the first time this race has been run
on a points system and the change was made to
make the race more interesting. It certainly has
made it more interesting. Perhaps it’s a
little like the last US elections. The person
with the most votes, or in this case the shortest
elapsed time, might not come out as the overall
victor. At least we will not need the Supreme
Court to intervene.
---
Brian Hancock great.circle@verizon.net
Source:
Around
Alone Official Site
