| From
a Whisper to a Gale
24/02/2003
By Mike Broughton
After
the frustrations of having race four of the America’s
Cup called off due to a dearth of wind, there is
now a distinct danger that racing could be ‘blown
off’ due to too much wind. Strong winds and
heavy rain look set to affect the Auckland area
for the next two to three days and compound race
officer Harold Bennett’s attempts to get the
next race away.
A
sub-tropical low-pressure system is sweeping south
towards the North Island of New Zealand and looks
set to bring strong winds gusting to gale force
right across the North Island. The ‘hot’
air in the centre of the depression holds a great
deal moisture supplied by the warm tropical Pacific
Ocean to the north New Zealand. Strong winds spin
clock-wise round the ‘compact low’ and
look set to bring strong south easterly winds from
Auckland to the northern tip of New Zealand.
The
crucial issue will be to see how much the central
pressure drops in the early hours of Tuesday. The
latest run of the WAFS (World Area Forecast System)
weather model is predicting a dramatic drop nine
millibars in just six hours between 0100 to 0700
NZT (down to 1001 mb). The Bracknell Model from
the UK concurs with the position of the low and
still predicts strong winds, but disagrees that
it will deepen so dramatically, not reaching 1001
mb until late afternoon.
A
secondary area of low-pressure is forecast to develop
just 150 miles east of the main centre of the low
and then pirouettes around the centre to prolong
the period of strong winds till Friday. The high-pressure
that has wrecked racing over the last five days
is predicted to continue to sink south, before clearing
to the east.
Many
observers have identified this to be an El Nino
year, which correlates with the amount of strong
south westerly winds that dominated the first part
of the Louis Vuitton Cup, back in October/November.
A further symptom of El Nino is a lack of rain in
January and February in Australasia, which is exactly
the situation in North Island with a ‘drought’
declared in some parts over the last two weeks.
That is about to change with some very heavy rain
bearing down on Auckland. Localised flooding looks
likely by the end of Wednesday…
Thursday
is the next scheduled race day and strong easterly
winds of around 20 knots look likely, with a rough
sea built up from the east that will refract round
into the race course in the Inner Hauraki Gulf from
the exposed north east. |
