Team
Ellen - Day 33: New Year Obstacles For MacArthur
Ellen
MacArthur's 75-foot trimaran <<B&Q>>
is passing 550 miles south of Tasmania and heading
towards Campbell Island, south of mainland New
Zealand, 910 miles further to her east this afternoon.
MacArthur has built up a lead to over two days,
capitalising on the current fast reaching conditions
and <<B&Q>> has increased her
advantage over Joyon's time by another 24 hours
since Monday morning. The remaining good north-westerly
breeze and much less rough seas are providing
ideal conditions that are allowing the 75-foot
multihull to race close to her potential: "Things
are much better now then they have been the last
few days, we've got breeze between 20-25 knots
so the boats sailing pretty easily. We've got
a nice wind angle of 130 [degrees] and although
its very misty and pretty cold and the water temperature
is down to 6 degrees, things are pretty okay."
Indeed they are, in comparison, this morning B&Q
was only 230 miles behind the pace of the 110-ft
maxi-catamaran 'Orange' on day 32 of their fully-crewed
64-day Jules Verne record in 2002.
The
current conditions are allowing MacArthur time
to recoup and to manage the continuous workload
that is needed to keep <<B&Q>>
in one piece having covered 13,408 miles so far
(now less than 350 miles from the midway point):
"I'm going to use the next 24hrs to try and
sleep as much as possible... I've already done
a run of repairs today, one of the halyards was
broken so I've re-spliced that and it's just good
to have time to look over the boat and check things.
I've got myself a list of things I'm going to
do as the weather improves. Some of those I'll
start doing tomorrow and some of those I'll do
when the winds a little bit lighter near New Zealand."
MacArthur was lucky not to lose the halyard all
together - only two strands of the kevlar halyard
were left, which is only one-tenth of the original
diameter. As she said afterwards: "You earn
your luck a bit, but that was lucky!"
The
wind is expected to start decreasing by tomorrow
lunchtime as <<B&Q>> approaches
a cell of high pressure that is stretching from
south-east Tasmania down to around 51 degrees
south. Ellen has been slipping south since yesterday
and is now far enough south to skirt the corner
of the high pressure before starting to head north-east
to pass north of Campbell Island possibly on Sunday
afternoon: "We've certainly got a few obstacles
ahead of us - one of those obstacles is a light
wind area and we've got to get through the corner
and then out again back into the stronger south
westerlies. But we've also got the iceberg zone
which is to the east of the Campbell Islands,
just south of New Zealand. What I'm trying to
do is use the two in tandom to try and help us
by sailing into the ridge and coming out with
a good angle of breeze, and by the same token
using that going north to get over the icebergs."
The only upside of what will be a slower New Year
period for Ellen, is that the lighter conditions
may allow Ellen time to get to her Christmas Box
and open the presents that have remained unwrapped
since the succession of storms began on Christmas
Eve.
As
MacArthur seeks some 'downtime' from the relentless
pace, she feels cocooned in a world of her own:
"It literally feels like we're sailing along
under a blanket, you can't see anything and the
sky has closed in to just a couple of hundred
metres away. Maybe even a hundred metres, I can
only see a couple of wave crests, three at best.
To be flying along, averaging 20 knots, and to
see the situation around you is a bit stressful.
You've got to be able to detach you're mind from
it, because you can't spend all the time looking
ahead. We shouldn't have icebergs here, even though
the water temperature is down to 6 degrees. You
just try and detach yourself from it, and just
hope that everything's okay! It is pretty incredible
to look out and see absolutely nothing and to
realise that you're world is pretty tiny around
you..."
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER:
Ellen
continues between high pressure just SE of Tasmania
and low pressure well off the W and SW. This pattern
is producing a potent NNW to NW flow, generally
between 24-32 kts. This will keep her moving along
very steadily towards the ESE. Expect this pattern
to hold until 09-12utc Friday with the wind then
starting to diminish. This should allow continued
good boat speed for the next 24-30 hours.
By
12utc Friday, high pressure will have nosed down
towards 50-51s/160-165e and will stay in that
area thru 12utc Saturday. Winds will decrease
and tend to back after 12utc Friday. Goal will
be to come along the bottom side of the high where
we can maintain some breeze. Winds will become
light on Saturday, but the very light conditions
likely nearer the high, around and north of 51s.
We will want to come NE some around this time
and probably aim to pass north of Campbell Island
sometime after 00-06utc Sunday. This will be a
safer course to try and avoid the ice area to
the ESE of Campbell Island.
Strategy:
1) Aim for 53-53 30s/155e by 12 utc Fri - north
of there ok - do not get any further south
2) As winds back to W then SW head north toward
52n west of Campbell Island.
3) Around 52 n then go onto starboard and head
east passing north of Campbell Island.
4) Continue east mostly on starboard next week
staying north of Golding iceberg near 154 44s
and 136w.
Wind
forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time
is UTC
Thurs,
Dec 30
15: 330-345/22-30
18: 330-345/24-32
Dense fog with perhaps a little drizzle, light
shower
Seas 15-20 ft
Fri,
Dec 31
00: 330-345/22-30
06: 320-340/22-30
12: 320-340/20-25, near 53 20s/155e - winds diminish
18: 320-31/22-17
Areas of dense fog with few showers developing.
Seas 12-18 ft and diminishing.
Sat,
Jan 1 - Winds back - passing just under high pressure
cell
00: 300-280/17-12 nr 53 20s/160 30e
06: 270-250/15-10
12: 250-240/ 8-12 nr 52 20s/164e - lighter wind
N and W - stronger S and E
18: 230-250/ 12-17- heading east on starboard
Showers end then mostly cloudy, dense fog less
frequent
Seas 6-12 feet mostly W-WSW swell.
http://www.commandersweather.com
