Team
Ellen - Day 29: Ellen Catches Up With The Storm
Again
PUNISHING
STORM OF CHRISTMAS DAY RECEDES OVERNIGHT BUT NOW
SAILING BACK INTO THE SAME STORM... B&Q fell
out of the back of the big frontal system in the
night and now there is a whole lot more to come!
As the winds decreased in the night, this piled
on the pressure for MacArthur to keep B&Q
moving as fast as she could - forcing constant
sail changes to go up a gear in speed. "I'm
exhausted really, had a bit of sleep in the cuddy
in my oilskins, probably about 45 minutes last
night. I had to force breakfast down but just
had the kettle on for next freeze dried meal...
I've done 12 sail changes in 12 hours, from 3
reefs and storm jib to full main and genoa."
Now the frontal system that passed over her by
the end of yesterday has stalled ahead and B&Q
is sailing back into the same storm: "Now
back all the way down to 2 reefs and staysail.
More to do yet, as we are now right on the back
of the first front and crossing again into the
40 knot plus northerlies..."
*
CHRISTMAS BOX ON HOLD UNTIL NEW YEAR... Wind speeds
are already up to 30+ knots as Ellen starts feeling
the effects of the big cold front that she has
caught up with again. Winds expected to increase
to 35-40 knots, gusting 45 knots, later today.
"I've got a few days of this kind of weather
and I'm not even going to think about opening
my Christmas Box until we are through the worst
of this and I can get some decent sleep...probably
New Year then!" Ellen will remember this
Christmas for a long time to come as perhaps the
most hazardous of her solo Christmas' in recent
years: "That was the third Christmas I've
spent alone! Once in New Zealand just before the
launch of Kingfisher when I went camping in the
bush on my own, I think I wanted to see what it
was like in preparation for the Vendée!
Then the Vendée which compared to this
was nothing and now this one - all very different..
But think this one is going to stick in my mind
for a long time to come."
*
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SURFING... B&Q heading
for Cape Leeuwin, over 1100 miles to her east,
on the south-west tip of Australia - the country
of surfers and that is exactly what B&Q has
been doing to as Ellen explains: "Its been
like a surfer riding a wave for the past 36 hours...he
sees it approaching and he goes as fast as he
can to stay in front, rides its full on, breaking
water all around, actually drops out the back
but then the waves slows down and he manages to
paddle so hard he gets back on the wave and ride
it once again. Only its not a very 'clean' wave!"
*
B&Q CONTINUES TO BUILD ON ADVANTAGE OVER JOYON...
Now 13 hours and 47 minutes ahead this morning
at 0810 GMT, Ellen is not letting go easily of
her lead over the current record-holder, Francis
Joyon. B&Q was at risk of falling behind his
time yesterday, for the first time since Day 7
of her attempt, as MacArthur's lead decreased
to just two hours. B&Q is now, once again,
south of his historical track - the further south,
the shorter the course - but on Christmas Eve,
B&Q was pushed north of IDEC's track for the
first time on this Southern Ocean leg which is
why the time penalty was so great. Joyon was forced
to take a more north-easterly track towards Australia
and now as B&Q continues to head on a south-easterly
track, she is building on her lead as each hour
passes...
WEATHER
ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:
From:
Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Sunday, December
26, 2004
Summary:
1) Looks as though you are now ahead of the front
with the stronger NW breeze, but can't be fooled,
as the front is not far to your W and SW.
a) Breeze could still drop into the 20-25 knot
range over the next 2-3 hrs
b) East heading is good, but would not go too
much south of east - winds lighter to the south,
as
c) The front is aligned NW to SE over the region
2) But the quicker you get east, the more likely
you will see the breeze continue to rise, and
will likely become quite rough again after 12
utc
3) Winds most likely increasing up to 30-35 knots
by 18 utc and may be gusts to 40-45 knots into
Tue.
4) With the front to the west and high pressure
to the east (south of Australia), think you will
continue with a strong/gusty NW-N wind flow over
the next couple days.
a) Winds speeds may avg in the 25-35 knot range
into Wed,
b) Then begins to settle down some further to
the east on Thu.
c) You should have favorable wind angles, but
seas may be on the rougher side
5) The next front is still projected to affect
you later in the week, most likely on Friday
6) If latest guidance is correct, then winds would
shift into the SW or S-SW behind the front later
Fri or early Sat.
Routing:
1) With the stronger NW breeze, suggest getting
east as you as much possible, keeping boat speeds
as high as you can.
a) don't want to head too much S of E, as you
have better chance of lighter winds to the south.
Wind
forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time
is UTC
Sun,
Dec 26 - much lighter breeze not far to the W
and SW closer to the
front
09: 310-340/24-32
12: 310-340/24-32, gusts to 40, near 42 40S/99
45E - stronger wind just to the NE
18: 320-350/30-35, gusts 40-45
Low clouds with periods of rain and may be some
squalls with the stronger breeze after 12 utc.
Seas becoming rougher again up to 15-20 ft+
Mon,
Dec 27
00: 320-350/25-35, gusts 40-45 - much lighter
wind to the W
06: 320-350/25-35, gusts 40-45
12: 330-360/22-32, near 43 45S/110 E
18: 330-350/22-30, gusts 35
Considerable clouds with passing showers/squalls.
Breeze likely unstable/shifty with showers passing
thru. Seas building to 15-22 ft, more wind wave
chop
http://www.commandersweather.com
