Team Ellen - Day 52: Halfway To Equator From Cape Horn, But Tough Going

Ellen MacArthur on the 75-foot multihull is approximately halfway between Cape Horn and the Equator since rounding Cape Horn six days ago having sailed 21,328 miles so far and leaving just over 5,000 miles to go (on theoretically shortest track). The complicated weather systems of the South Atlantic continue to plague <<B&Q>>: "Really variable winds - 9 knots to 18 knots - averaging around 14 knots. It's hard because I need to keep going fast to catch the low that is moving slowly north. The sea conditions are terrible - got a headsea coming from the north and we are just leaping off waves and falling 3-4 meters [seconds later a big crash heard in the background as <<B&Q>> falls off a wave]... No one knows how far we are from the front - maybe we can get through by 2000gmt tonight, just don't know..." MacArthur is dealing with the second major weather hurdle presented to her inside the last 36 hours, after crossing the ridge of high pressure last night, which is to get through a weak low ahead of her. But first she has to catch up the low and that is the dilemma. Needing all the sail area she can to keep <<B&Q>> moving as fast as possible but requiring extra vigilence once across the front, as the breeze will turn to upwind and can increase strongly - risk of capsize is high unless MacArthur can reduce sail quickly and in advance of the strong winds - a difficult balancing act. Latest data shows the wind in a south-westerly direction that might suggest MacArthur is getting closer to the weak low as she head on an ENE course at just 8.94 knots. The uncertainty lies in whether she can cross this front tonight or not. "This a very old front which has very changeable winds in it, and I'm trying to punch to the north of that at the moment but it's pretty tough going and the sea conditions are terrible. The waves are right on the nose of the boat and we're getting thrown around quite violently so it's not much fun at the moment. It will be nice to punch through to the other side of this and actually start making some decent progress to the north albeit slow."

On the other side of the front, lies the final third weather obstacle predicted for this 72 hour period - strong north-westerly upwinds, although Commanders' Weather are hoping these will not be as strong as the 30 knots forecast yesterday. MacArthur is trying to remain pragmatic as she digs deep to keep pushing <<B&Q>> north: " I'm just trying to take every hour and everyday as it comes. If you think about the big picture, it's sometimes a bad thing to do. Right now, I'm just trying to look at each day and deal with every day... There is no doubt we're slowing, there is no doubt we're losing a lot of time at the moment because we're not going very quickly, but at the same time I've just got to get through this and out the other side and there is no point in thinking about anything else right now."

The time AHEAD/BEHIND is now being calculated as the time it took Francis Joyon to reach the same Distance to Finish as Ellen at her current position - this now stands at 3 days and 16 hours at 1510gmt today. This doesn't take in to account where Francis is laterally on the racetrack (they don't follow the same track obviously), or his future performance. There are only a few known actual positions of Joyon available each day, so there is some minor interpolation between them to give us an hourly comparison. This change only had a minor effect of a few hours on the information presented this morning. The only absolute calculation that cannot be questioned is the time of Ellen passing the finish line at Ushant!

WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER:

Summary:
1) Thunderstorm near 29-30S/39-40W probably associated with a little low will move quickly ESE
2) Cold front is near this thunderstorm and arcs NW to the Brazilian cost thru 27 30S/40W to 26N/44W
a) the northern part of this front will not move today and will then drift slowly S after 1200UTC Wed
b) the southern part of the front, near 29-30S will move a little further E today at a slow speed
3) We have 2 options, try to cross the front today or try to cross the front tomorrow
a) if we try to cross today, we will best to try and cross the front near 29S
b) if we try to cross the front tomorrow, then a more northerly heading is just fine today
4) Once again, the safety of the boat and the skipper is the single most important thing
a) if heading for the front today is too dangerous, we do NOT want you to attempt it
5) We are sailing in the middle of a frontal zone - there will be variation in wind speed and the wind directions will not veer steadily around into the NW
a) the breeze will be unstable and flakey
a) wind speeds could be as low as 5/6 kts (hopefully not lower) and as high as 15/16 kts (your 18 kts is on the high side of the range)
b) can not rule out a thunderstorm completely until the winds are a more solid NW-N 15-20 kts
6) If winds become NE like they were at 1310UTC, we are cooked and must try to cross the front tomorrow - we will bear away and favor a more NW and N heading
7) If winds do veer, as they are right now, then I think we should try crossing the front today
a) it will not be easy. Wind speeds will vary and the winds will shift and this will not be a steady shift, but many lefties/righties within the mostly persistent right shift
b) wind speeds will be mainly low, 6-14 kts, but think we must careful about the odd period above 15 kts and the tiny chance of a thunderstorm or squall
8) I do not see you crossing into the solid NW winds until after 00UTC and it could be as late as 06UTC Wed
a) the threat of a squall or thunderstorm will continue until we are in the NW-N winds 15+ kts
9) Remember, we have the option of sailing NNW and try to cross the front tomorrow

Strategy
1) As winds veer, you heading will become more ENE and E, which is fine
2) As discussed before, you will have to gybe when the winds become W and
WNW
a) heading will be left of 29S/39W, but winds will veer and bring us back to our course
b) ideally would like to cross 39W near 28 30S to 29 20S and 38W near 28-29S - this gives us the best chance of punching thru the front and into the stronger northerlies in less than 24 hours
3) Remember, do not do anything that will jeopardize the boat or you - we can always cross the front tomorrow, but the northerly seas will always be there.
Good news, the 30 kt northerlies are unlikely - they are departing on the
east side of the little low

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Tue, Jan 18
16: 150-180/13-7 - chasing the front
18: 190-230/ 5-10 - chasing the front and close to it
21: 230-290/ 6-12
Cloudy to partly cloudy, but a squally shower or thunderstorm is still possible.
Seas 6-9 ft and likely to get a combination of SW and N sea develop during the day and night

Wed, Jan 19
00: 310-340/ 8-14 - wind substantially stronger to the NE
06: 320-340/14-20, more breeze/further right just to the E
12: 350-010/18-24, near 27 20s/35 20w
18: 360-020/16-22
Threat of thunderstorms/squally showers end when the NW-N wind freshens then partly cloudy. Seas building to 12-16 ft

http://www.commandersweather.com