Team Ellen - Day 51: MacArthur Facing Three Big Weather Hurdles In Next 72 Hours

MacArthur knows that the lead which she has managed to rebuild after averaging 20 knots for the past 20 hours to 3 days, 22 hours and 44 minutes at 1450gmt this afternoon - adding six hours to her advantage since 1310 gmt yesterday - is under serious threat from three major weather obstacles that she will have to face in the next 72 hours. The advantage is also under further threat as Joyon, south of the Falklands, was maintaining fast average speeds during this time. There is no way around the weather hurdles ahead and each one is different, with its own characteristics, presenting different challenges: "Right now, we've got several hurdles ahead of us - there is a ridge of high pressure which we're going to be going through in the next few hours which is, basically, wind one side of it, wind the other side of it and nothing in the middle, and we've got to get through that. Following that just 12 hours later, we're going to be sailing into an old weather front with a new depression moving down it, so we've got to try and get behind that depression and through into the breeze which is the other side which is potentially 25-30 knots upwind - the 3rd hurdle. We're going to get a lot of different conditions in the next 36 hours and, quite frankly, it's going to be horrendous and we're going to come out of that into light upwind airs in order to try and get to the Equator. So it's going to be pretty miserable and pretty full on for the next few days."

MacArthur estimates that her average speed over the next four days will drop to as low as 9 knots. <<B&Q>> passed the 21,000 mark of miles sailed through the water earlier today at an average speed of 17.5 knots and for the first time in this record attempt MacArthur's average VMG required [velocity made good to the finish] has dipped to 9.9 knots with 5,394 miles left on a 'best possible course' distance, bearing in mind <<B&Q>> sail further as she navigates north. The south-easterly Trade Winds that fill in south of the Equator are still around 1000 miles away.

Today MacArthur's voice sounded a bit stronger as she managed to recoup some sleep in the last 24 hours, taking the opportunity when she can to sleep: "Zonking out when I can, breeze was better through the night then expected, averaged 20 knots, I guess." Allowing MacArthur to grab every opportunity she could to sleep.

No one expected the South Atlantic to be easy and since rounding Cape Horn on day 45, MacArthur has had to dig very, very deep to continue pushing as hard as she has: "The last few days have not been just testing, but have taken me once again a long way inside myself to find the strength to keep sailing safely." This acute revelation came in an email yesterday, after the toll of the South Atlantic had pushed MacArthur to the edge of critical fatigue. To see this email in full, click here http://www.teamellen.com/ellen.asp?artid=2078

WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER:

WNW wind is now coming down and the next big challenge will be crossing the ridge later today. Winds will become very light during the day Monday and may go light and variable for a time as Ellen moves near and through the high pressure ridge. Will then try to head north to cross the ridge and sail the shortest distance we can to get through it as quickly as possible. The lightest wind will likely be between 15utc-22utc Monday.

Wind will become SE to E once we pass the high and should pick up for a time. The next obstacle will then be a weak low and stalled frontal boundary that Ellen will have to pass. Along the front there will be showers and squalls. Although the frontal boundary will feature mainly light air in the frontal zone, the wind may be shifty and gusty at times due to the showers/thunderstorms.

Once through and north of the front, some rapidly increasing N winds will take over for Tues night and Wed. Will then head more ENE.

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Mon, Jan 17
09: 280-300/22-17 - wind much lighter near and N of 35s
12: 290-270/15-10, near 34 30s/42 15w
18: var/ 4-8 - near ridge axis and will head N to cross at shortest distance
Mainly fair. Seas 6-10 feet

Tue, Jan 18
00: 130-090/ 7-14 - wind becomes SE to E when we cross N of the ridge
06: 100-120/10-16
12: 160-220/ 6-12, near 29 40s/41w - low just off to the ESE near front squally
18: becmg 330-360/10-18 - crossing the frontal zone - squally - wind may increase quickly
Variable cloudiness with scattered showers and tstms. Activity tapers off when the NW-N wind increases. Winds shifty and gusty in the frontal zone. Seas 6-9ft
Likely to get some SW and N sea at night.

http://www.commandersweather.com