Team
Ellen - Day 45: Legendary Cape Horn Living Up
To Its Reputation
Ellen
MacArthur sailing the 75-foot multihull, <<B&Q>>,
is potentially only 235 miles from rounding Cape
Horn - the legendary final cape of the Southern
Ocean and the only real 'turning mark' on the
round the world course that releases MacArthur
back into the Atlantic ocean and she is understandably
nervous: "The passage of Cape Horn is making
me uncomfortable...". One thing that is certain,
is that the next 18 hours are going to be stressful
- 30+ knot sustained winds with squalls bringing
gusts in excess of 45-50 knots and very rough
seas as a low pressure tracks to the north-east
escorting MacArthur into the South Atlantic. Crossing
Drakes Passage can throw up the most appalling
conditions as the Southern Ocean weather depressions
get squeezed through the 200-mile wide bottleneck
between Cape Horn and Antarctica. The other thing
that is less certain is her ETA: "To be honest,
I just don't know... It's not as early as we thought
yesterday, that's for sure, the night has been
pretty slow so I would say between 0600-1200 UTC."
Navigating this passage will be very tricky, partly
in darkness, MacArthur will have to avoid the
Diego Ramirez island, approx 60 miles south-west
of Cape Horn, and current routing suggests she
will go south of this small island before heading
north-east towards the 'exit' of the south. Her
closest proximity to Cape Horn will be when she
is to the south-east of it, but she is unlikely
to pass that close, maybe as much as 30 miles
offshore. It will be a strange concept for MacArthur,
to be so close to land once again - the last time
she actually saw land was on day 17 passing the
island of Tristan da Cunha in the South Atlantic
on 14th December.
For
now, MacArthur is maintaining a five day lead
[5 days, 2 hours, 10 minutes at 1400 GMT this
afternoon] and it looks possible that she could
take a significant chunk of time off Joyon's time
to Cape Horn which he rounded on 10th January
2004 at 1021 GMT after 49 days, 2 hours and 21
minutes.
As
she prepares to leave the harshest stage of the
voyage behind her, Ellen estimates that her chances
of completing the tour increase significantly,
but that equally the chances of technical failure
increase exponentially, that could bring her attempt
to a sudden halt. Having completed 18,800 miles
of the course, representing just two-thirds of
the total distance, both boat and skipper have
endured a relentless pace that leaves them fatigued
to the extreme. There is a high risk of a major
technical failure that could end the attempt in
a blink of an eye, or MacArthur making a bad decision
on the weather that could ruin her chances of
success as they head out into the final stage
of the course that will bring more complicated
weather challenges: "I think the chances
of actually completing the trip once you go round
Cape Horn go up considerably, there is no doubt
about it. You've gone through the Southern Ocean
which is the most dangerous and stressful place
you will sail in during the trip. So I would say
that once you go round Cape Horn your chances
of finishing the trip probably go up by 60-70%.
But then you've got to look at the other side,
at the area where you have the most unstable winds,
the area where you have the lightest winds, is
the Atlantic and I may have a 5 day lead right
now but that could be lost. Anything could happen
between now and the finish, and the worst thing
to be is complacent, right now, it really is."
WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER:
Will
be very tricky maneuvering just south of Cape
Horn and north of the potential ice fields in
next 24 hours.
Big
low pressure system 500 miles SSW of Cape Horn
at 6 utc Tuesday will track slowly northeast in
the next 24 hours. This low will escort Ellen
toward and around Cape Horn with increasing WSW-W
winds. Wind speeds will likely build to 30-40
kts and seas will come up to 15-25 feet.
As
if the winds and seas are not enough the routing
thru this area will be very tricky with Ellen
needing to avoid Diego Ramiriz Island, potential
icebergs south of 56s and Cape Horn itself. Several
gybes may be needed next 24 hours to do this.
Once
past Cape Horn she will have to decide whether
she can go east of Staten Island or head up thru
the Straits of Le Maire. If she goes thru the
Straits of Le Maire she will need to time the
currents so she is going with the current and
the SW wind. This could be very tricky and the
route east of Staten Island
may be safer. Once north of Staten Island strong
SW winds will make for a fast ride west of the
Falkland Islands.
Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time
is UTC
Tue,
Jan 11
15: 240-270/26-32, a gust/squall to 40-45
18: 250-280/28-34, a gust/squall to 45-50
Changeable skies with a scattering of squalls
- could gust to 45-50 kts this afternoon/early
evening. Seas rough, at least 15-20 feet
Wed,
Jan 12
00: 250-280/26-34, gusts/squalls 45-50
06: 280-240/26-34, gust/squall 45
12: 230-250/26-34, gust/squall 40-45, just E of
the Straits of Lemaire
18: 230-250/26-34, gust/squall 45-50
Mix of clouds and sunshine with a few less showers/squalls,
but still a cold, heavy breeze.
Seas will be rough, but should improve some, once
in the lee of Argentina
Thu,
Jan 13
00: 230-250/25-35, gust 40
06: 230-250/24-32, gust 40
12: 240-260/22-28, near 47 10s/60 10w
18: 250-270/20-25
Partly cloudy with the showers/squalls ending.
Seas 10-15 feet
http://www.commandersweather.com
