Team Ellen - Day 42: Hardship Is Paying Dividends For MacArthur

Conditions in the last 24 hours are very different from the storm that engulfed Ellen MacArthur on Thursday, allowing the <<B&Q>> skipper time to recuperate and tackle the never-ending job list to keep the 75-foot multihull up and running at her full potential. However, the north-westerly 18-25 knot breeze have not provided the perfect platform to solely concentrate on sleep and DIY: "I had to take a reef because we had gusts up to 27 knots, even though the average was supposed to be less, so got a couple of hours sleep then. Then we had a few clouds go over with 27 knots again but the breeze is down now, averaging around 20 knots. So went back to full main this morning and the breeze is actually on its way, clocking into the north which is quite a good thing at the moment because it means we should be able to sail quite quick for a while."

MacArthur's objective is to sail fast as she can to the east, and slightly north of east, to keep ahead of Thursday's storm that is on its way back, accelerating fast south-east as it intensifies and is expected to catch <<B&Q>> by Monday: "Right now, we've got the low only 250 miles behind us so it's not that far away. At the moment conditions are relatively stable so I'm just hoping things don't get too bad, too soon. But one thing, that is 100% sure, is that Monday is going to be an absolutely terrible day... We're going to have SW winds, very, very strong, incredibly gusty, very unstable and I'm not looking forward to that whatsoever, as it will be very similar conditions to what we had before with the wind going from 15-40 knots and we're going to get that on the backside of this low."

Unfortunately, this race against the advancing storm is not particular conducive to sleep: "Its pretty stressful sailing but the faster we sail, the further we get away from the the low and the safer we are. So I'm acutely aware of that.... So in theory this is supposed to be rest period, but it's pretty hard to rest when the boat is surfing down waves at 24 knots and the breeze keeps coming up and down - it's still stressful. I'm very, very tired..."

But all the hardship is paying dividends - MacArthur is sailing a course 300 miles futher south of Joyon, close to the Great Circle Route, and is now four days, 18 hours and 55 minutes ahead, that represents 14.99% of the time remaining for Ellen of the record time set by Joyon, as she approaches Cape Horn, approximately 1500 miles further east: "I would never in my wildest dreams have imagined sitting here, a few days from the Horn, with a four day lead - just no way, I would never have thought that was possible. So, obviously, I'm over the moon about that but I am very, very aware that we still have 10,000 miles to sail, we still have not got round Cape Horn and a very ferocious low is 250 miles behind us - I am dealing with this day by day. And until we get home, absolutely nothing, nothing is sealed and anything could happen. Every single day out here, you are thinking what is going to break next, what's going to go wrong next, what weather system is going to move differently." A pragmatic approach from a solo skipper who is genuinely aware of every pitfall having covered 17,438 miles of the round the world course at an average speed of 17.6 knots. The latest ETA for <<B&Q's>> rounding of Cape Horn is between 2100GMT on Tuesday, 11th January through to 1200 GMT on Wednesday, 12th January. From passing the final cape of the Southern Ocean, MacArthur will face even more challenges on the final third stage of her attempt to get to the finish line.

Francis Joyon had troubled times on this part of the course that slowed him considerably, although from day 42 he speeded up, turning in 500+ mile days, until another piece of bad luck befell him on day 46 when he seriously damaged his Solent headsail. "Francis had a pretty rough time in the first part of the Atlantic - but not the second part - so we can afford to have a few bad days or light days [in the South Atlantic]. If we have a lead at the Horn, we could be okay. But in the North Atlantic, Francis had a pretty good time, he didn't actually really see the Doldrums at all because he already had the NE Trades when he was in the southern hemisphere so he didn't actually suffer in the Doldrums. So, for us, it's a question of - are we going to suffer in the Doldrums, are we going to suffer in the South Atlantic and are we going to suffer in the North Atlantic? And, to be honest, we could suffer in all three, we just don't know..." For Ellen, the only time she will be able to enjoy her advantage is IF she crosses the finish line ahead of Joyon's incredible time of 72 days, 22 hours, 54 minutes and 22 seconds before 07:04:06 GMT on 9th February.

WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:

From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Saturday, January 8, 2005

The strong gale is located about 250 miles W of Ellen. The gale has completed its clockwise loop and will move E during the next 36 hours. The low will then accelerate to the SE late Sunday/early Monday.

Ellen continues to sail in a moderate NW wind with gales to the north, west, and south west of her. At this time there are no squalls near Ellen and she may spend much of Saturday squall free. The moderate NW wind and reasonable seas will continue for another 18-24 hours, or all of Saturday.

Low pressure moves very close to Ellen late on Sunday before accelerating to the SE. NW winds will increase, but the average, sustained wind speeds should remain near or under gale force. Squalls will become more widespread as Sunday progresses and the squalls could touch 50 kts at times.

Cold front will arrive late Sunday/early Monday with a wind shift to SW. At least for the first 3-6 hours of the wind shift into the SW, the SW winds will not be terribly strong, but sustained winds to 30 kts and squalls to 50 are likely later Monday. Monday could be a difficult day with shifty wind directions, potential for wind gusts to 50 kts, and large seas from the WSW.

Still looking to go around Cape Horn on Wednesday, January 12th

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Sat, Jan 8
09: 290-310/20-25
06: 300-320/18-24 - wind stronger N, lighter to the S
12: 300-320/20-25, near 53s/110 50w - stronger wind to the N and NW,
lighter to the S
18: 310-330/18-24
Changeable skies, but basically more fair skies than cloudy skies and only a small chance of a shower. Seas 15-20 feet

Sun, Jan 9
00: 310-340/20-25
06: 310-340/20-26, squall?? to 40-45
12: 350-310/26-20, squally to 45, near 53 20s/ 97 20w
18: 310-340/18-24 and squally - low very close to you
Becoming cloudy with shower/squall threat increasing. Seas increasing and turning more W and then WSW

Mon, Jan 10
00: 320-260/25-15, gust/squall 35-40
06: 290-250/14-20, gust/squall 40-45, unstable and shifty
12: 250-220/18-24, gust/squall 40-45, unstable and shifty, near 56 20S/86W
18: 210-250/18-24, gust/squall 40-45, unstable and shifty
Changeable skies and very squally. Much colder and rough.

http://www.commandersweather.com