Team Ellen - Day 38: No Release FromStressful Weather Conditions

The erratic weather conditions in the Pacific Ocean may be causing Ellen MacArthur a huge amount of stress on day 37 of her solo record attempt, but her advance on the record continues unabated, adding another 3 hours on the clock since this morning, and now stands at over two days and 18 hours ahead of Francis Joyon's time [7.71% of the time remaining]. Having effectively passed the halfway stage in terms of distance on New Year's Eve, Ellen has now sailed for over half of Joyon's record time of 72 days, 22 hours and 55 minutes and now has less than 36 days left to try and break his solo world record. <<B&Q>> must cross the finish line by 07:04:06 GMT on 9th February to break Joyon's current world solo speed record.

MacArthur's weather advisors, Commanders' Weather based in the US, are expecting the winds to veer to the west and become a bit more stable late today and tonight, but as long as the wind directions are SSW and SW, the winds will remain quite variable. This has been the case for the last 36 hours and the unstable conditions have delivered huge variations both in wind speed and direction: "Right now, we've got gusts of over 40 knots, lightening storms all around us and we've had hail storms all day. Conditions are incredibly unstable, the sea conditions are relatively flat but the wind is just all over the place. There is a depression forming to the north and we're getting all the energy that's going into creating that depression which is passing over us, so the last three days have been pretty stressful and very hard work."

Wednesday will be the day when winds turn more west and north-west, and <<B&Q>> may be fortunate enough to have a 24-36 hour period of fast conditions once the NW wind arrives in the area. This will be a massive relief to Ellen, who is suffering from lack of sleep: "I'm feeling knackered as I am having hardly had any sleep. The wind alarm is going off all the time. If I do try and sleep I get woken by the alarm telling me the breeze is once gain over 28, or 35 or 40 knots. It's incredibly difficult to switch off, it's very difficult to wind down, it's difficult to even stand up in the boat. It's really, really full on and that's not going to change for another 36 hours so we've just got to hang in here." As the wind shifts to the W and NW, MacArthur will be lining up to gybe on to port - the timing of that gybe is expected to be around 1800 GMT tomorrow [Wednesday] to keep <<B&Q>> tracking to the east but, undoubtedly, she will slide to the south back into the colder waters bringing the ever-present iceberg threat back into play.

Through all this Ellen has kept the boatspeed up, mostly around 20 knots, but <<B&Q's>> gains over Joyon are due mostly to the trouble he was experiencing on IDEC. On Joyon's 37th day at sea the fitting at the top of the mainsail, to which the halyard is attached, that holds the sail up fractured and broke. He had to drop IDEC's mainsail for five hours to make the repair. He got going again, was faced with a very difficult decision as to go south or north. He went north and on day 39, he ended up in the middle of a depression with no wind, rain and a very confused sea state [so bad even the albatrosses had stopped flying, although he had a giant whale next to him for company!] and Joyon only managed to cover 215 miles. So if Ellen can keep it going, keep herself and the boat together, she should see some further gains in the next 48 hours. However, after that Joyon had a great run right up the Horn, recording 500+ mile days (Ellen's best so far is 484miles).

Interestingly, by the time Joyon got to the physical position of Ellen today, he experienced the very same highly unstable conditions, pushing him in his own words to his limit of exhaustion. [see 'Le Tour du Monde Absolu' by Francis Joyon published by Arthaud, just out, french only]

ELLEN EMAIL 0030 GMT 4.1.04:

Well, things have been quite tough over the last few days...We're in a very unstable wind situation, and poor <<B&Q>> has been stopping and starting like there's no tomorrow. The sky is blue mainly, but there are many clouds - some angry, some not - which come in towards us like angry demons to attack us with their angry icy gusts. Yesterday we had a few pearlers where the wind reached over 38 knots sustaining 35 [knots] for 40 minutes... The sky went black, and the sea a silky grey as the hail stones poured down from the heavens to batter the waters surface. <<B&Q>> was flying, surfing into the high 20's, sailing deep, down the waves, on the limit - but thankfully not over. I made the most of the second such storm to collect some spare water - so went forward to the mast to hold the bucket under the sail. The water fell - just above freezing temperature - as it melted off the sail. As I watched the storm pass over us my skin stung as the hefty hailstones banged into me, they clattered off the deck so they must have been hitting hard - I gues they've fallen a long way! I saved 2 litres of drinking water then washed some thermals with the rest - though little smells now as it's so cold but that will all change when things warm up! Last night we had wind all over the place - and strength from 5 knots to 38 knots. We felt as if we were weaving in and out of the wind - somehow evading it... Frustrating and exhausting with so many sail changes [11 in 24 hours]. I managed a few hours of troubled sleep - waking each time to the ear-piercing alarm telling me once again the wind had risen. I dragged myself off the floor where I was huddled in my oilskins under a fleece blanket - and looked to the sky to see yet another demon black cloud. Though the night was hard and exhausting, there was a really beautiful aspect - sunset was magnificent with the orange glow lighting up the waves, and the birds around us lit up by this 'warmth' of light. It's amazing to see the darkest clouds blacken the sky but the boat before it glowing as before a winter's fire. Just stunning. Now I can see the sky at night I realise that the dusk just runs in to night, and it never really gets dark at night. In fact, there is always that golden glow on the horizon - dusk melting into dawn then bringing the new day. At least the nights are short. This morning things are a little more stable and the decision is which sails to put up. I'm my own worst enemy in these situations, always wanting <<B&Q>> to be sailing as well as she possibly can be - that's hard in the squally conditions though - hard when the wind speeds are very hard to predict. But I made myself useful, telling myself to give it an hour or so... Putting safety on the tramp lashings, bailing out the three buckets full of water from the windward float. I tried to seal it better this time with silicone. It seems just yesterday I was in there bailing out a few buckets. It's a bizarre feeling sitting with your head poking out of the float - it's narrow, but about as deep as I am tall - so when the hatch is out you can stand on the hull - I felt like a charachter out of wacky races, my little head poking out of such a huge graceful shape. I smiled anyway but I guess being out here alone kind of does that to you!
ellen xx

WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 UTC, MONDAY, JANUARY 3, 2005 :

Unstable, squally conditions will continue with the SSW winds. Slow improvement after 1200-1400UTC Tuesday.

Package of energy is passing through Ellen's area between now and 1200-1400UTC Tuesday. This energy will generate a new low about 250-300 miles NE of Ellen Tuesday night/Wednesday. SSW winds will continue with wind shifts of up to 50 degrees likely. Wind gusts could reach 36-38 kts, but there will be an occasional lull down to 18-20 kts. The weather conditions will be quite challenging.

Winds will veer/clock and become a bit more stable late today and tonight, but as long as the wind directions are SSW and SW, the winds will remain quite variable. Wednesday will be the day when winds become more W and NW. We may get a 24-36 hour period of favorably fast conditions, once the NW wind arrives in the area.

Strategy
1) Come E and then more ESE as the wind clocks - take the wind shifts as best you can. Have you coming mainly E next several hours with the most SE course
occurring around and after 0400utc Wed.
2) Watch for the showers/squalls - some rather strong, gusty winds near these.
3) The time of the gybe on Wed will be determined by how far N or how far S
we are
a) early gybe will be to get us back N
b) late gybe will be done if we are well ahead of the stronger wind speeds
c) right now estimating around 18utc Wed for the gybe

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Tue, Jan 4
15: 200-225/26-32, gusts to 38
18: 200-230/22-30, gusts to 35
Variable cloudiness with more scattered showers and squalls. Gusty winds on front end of some of the squalls then lighter in the middle and shortly after 1 passes. SW seas 12-18 feet

Wed, Jan 5
00: 220-245/20-28, gusts to 32 - wind lighter to the N and E
06: 230-250/22-30
12: 230-260/22-28, near 52 55s/145w
18: 240-270/28-20, gybing between 12-18utc - stronger wind E and S,
lighter W and N
Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming more stable. Seas 10-15 feet with a SW to W swell.

http://www.commandersweather.com