Team Ellen - Day 36: Icebergs Spotteed To The North Of B&Q

At 0430 GMT this morning Ellen reported that she had spotted two large 50 metre+ icebergs just two miles to her north [<<B&Q>> position 50 58 degrees south / 175 52 degrees east at that time]: "I can see them off to port... I'm nervous, like you would be, I've to go back on deck. I only have four hours left of daylight, by then I hope I'm passed the worst part..." Ellen was referring to the numerous icebergs reported by the Vendée skippers further south. The MRCC in New Zealand first alerted the Vendée Globe organisation of the ice zone two weeks ago - the ice field ESE of Campbell Island stretches hundreds of miles both west to east and north to south. The current Vendée Globe leader, Jean Le Cam, was the first to see ice that in turn assisted the other skippers in plotting their way through the ice field. Unfortunately, for VMI skipper Sebastien Josse, he suffered a collision with a growler [a broken off piece of iceberg] that caused substantial damage to his Open 60 VMI including a broken bow sprit. The knowledge of this ice zone has dictated B&Q's path to the north in the last 48 hours, although the icebergs seen by Ellen a few hours ago are positioned extremely far north (and a further 60 miles north of the northernmost sighting in the Vendée fleet) as the sun sets, it will be a very tense time on board <<B&Q>> for the next few hours of darkness.

Since 1900 GMT yesterday, <<B&Q>> has sustained boat speeds in excess of 20 knots in a good S-SW 20-26 knot breeze and MacArthur has now sailed 14,640 miles at an average speed of 17.4 knots as she heads into day 35 of her solo, non-stop round the world record attempt. Although fast, <<B&Q>> is starting to lose some of the heard-earned two and a half day advantage, as <<B&Q>> heads slightly north of east having sailed north of Joyon's historical track, crossing back over IDEC'S track for only the second time on this Southern Ocean leg. It is a relentless challenge to try and break Francis Joyon's record of 72 days, 22 hours and 54 minutes - the only man to have set a new world record for solo, non-stop around the world on a multihull. The pace continues to push MacArthur to her physical and mental limits, although MacArthur is managing her sleep programme well. Sleep expert, Dr Claudio Stampi, who has worked with Ellen for the past five years, said: "For now I can say that over the past five days, Ellen has been doing a good and judicious job in terms of sleep management." Ellen wears a bio-monitor that records the time she is resting, calorie expenditure and stress levels and this data is sent back to Dr Stampi for analysis. Ellen has averaged over 6 hours sleep in every 24 hours in the last five days - her lowest amount of sleep, just 1h 32m was on the 28th December as B&Q suffered gale-force conditions for the third time. The sleep is taken in short 'cat-naps' of 10, 20, 30 or sometimes 40 minutes. Undoubtedly, sleep will be difficult in the current environment combined with the squally conditions that are passing through with each cold front bringing unstable winds, both in speed and direction, with strong gusts for the next 48 hours.

Now at 50 55 degrees south and 177 16 degrees east, <<B&Q>> is fast approaching the International Date Line [at 180 degrees East] from which point on, instead of counting up eastern degrees she will be counting down the western degrees all the way across the Pacific for <<B&Q's>> passage to Cape Horn [approximately 3700 miles to the east], and all the way home...

WEATHER ANALYSIS FROM COMMANDERS' WEATHER 0600 GMT:

From: Commanders' Weather Corp 0600UTC Sunday, January 2, 2005

Ellen is currently on the southwest side of a cold front that is moving NE. Winds are S-SW at a wide range in wind speed, 18-28 kts.

Breeze will continue to be unstable and gusty with sustained wind speeds of 20-26 kts this morning and a few gusts over 30. Breeze will tend to veer/clock tonight and early Monday, as another cold front approaches from the SW. Wind speeds will become very gusty and squally. Once the cold front passes winds will become more SW and quite unstable again

Average wind speeds will increase from 20-24 kts to much higher wind speeds, 26-32 kts and a few gusts over 30 kts. Still, wind directions will vary considerably from 190 to 250, even behind the cold front.

Strategy
1) Northing is fine with the SSW winds, but we will start to work south as the winds veer after 1200UTC
2) Next front will arrive from the SSW on Mon, so unlikely we will reach 54S

Wind forecasts
Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, time is UTC

Sun, Jan 2
09: 200-230/20-26, gust 30
12: 205-235/22-28, gust 32
18: 210-240/26-32, gust/squall to 36-40
Mix of clouds and sunshine. A few squally showers may return after 1500UTC

Mon, Jan 3
00: 220-250/26-32, gust/squall to 36-40
06: 225-255/18-26, gust/squall to 30-32
12: 195-225/18-26, cold front passing and wind speeds will increase, near
53S/169W
18: 200-230/20-26, gust 30-32
Changeable skies with a few quick moving squally showers.
Seas building to 10-16 feet - SW swell

http://www.commandersweather.com